The world's worst-case scenario seems increasingly plausible: catastrophic warming, devastating ecosystems, and a desperate quest to find a solution. Scientists now propose reflecting a fraction of incoming sunlight as the only feasible way to cool the planet, a concept first proposed in 1965 by Lyndon B Johnson's science advisers. Raising Earth's natural heat shield could reduce global temperatures by around 0.1C, but how?
The idea is rooted in the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991, which cooled the planet by about 0.5C after releasing massive amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. This natural experiment led to the development of a concept known as stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which models suggest could offset 1C of warming using around 12m tonnes of SO2 annually. However, this approach raises significant concerns about risks and potential misuse.
In order for SAI to be used safely and effectively, research must be conducted to understand its effects on the environment and ecosystems. Careful, open studies can clarify whether a well-governed approach could reduce harm, particularly for vulnerable populations. The risks of misuse mean that research should not be dismissed outright. Instead, scientists propose a phased clinical trial-style approach to SAI, with lab work, computer models, and small-scale outdoor experiments designed to test key assumptions.
Phase one involves releasing tiny amounts of SO2 into the stratosphere to study how aerosols form, evolve, and disperse. This would be done in conjunction with instruments like aircraft, ground-based stations, and satellites to measure the effects accurately. Comparing these observations to model predictions would offer early insights into where current projections are robust and where they need refinement.
Phase two experiments could involve larger amounts of SO2 being released to study how aerosols mix and distribute. These tests would aim to identify key uncertainties in our understanding of SAI, as well as detect any unauthorized deployments. The observational capabilities required for these tests would also be critical in monitoring the effects of SAI on climate patterns.
A hypothetical phase three trial could involve small, deliberate cooling over five years under constant observation and strict oversight. If successful, this approach could provide a framework for policymakers to make informed decisions about SAI use. However, building confidence in this technology requires real-world evidence, transparently generated before any crisis forces action.
Several initiatives are underway to develop the tools, rules, and oversight mechanisms necessary for responsible research on SAI. The UK's Advanced Research and Invention Agency (Aria) program is a notable example. Researchers, scientists, and organizations like Reflective are working together to accelerate the pace of sunlight reflection studies and ensure transparency and accountability in the field.
Ultimately, conducting outdoor research on SAI is not a slippery slope; it's a necessary step towards informed decision-making about this potentially game-changing technology. By investing in open science and careful experimentation, we can reduce both scientific uncertainties and political risks, while ensuring that any future decisions are based on facts rather than fear or wishful thinking.
The idea is rooted in the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991, which cooled the planet by about 0.5C after releasing massive amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. This natural experiment led to the development of a concept known as stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which models suggest could offset 1C of warming using around 12m tonnes of SO2 annually. However, this approach raises significant concerns about risks and potential misuse.
In order for SAI to be used safely and effectively, research must be conducted to understand its effects on the environment and ecosystems. Careful, open studies can clarify whether a well-governed approach could reduce harm, particularly for vulnerable populations. The risks of misuse mean that research should not be dismissed outright. Instead, scientists propose a phased clinical trial-style approach to SAI, with lab work, computer models, and small-scale outdoor experiments designed to test key assumptions.
Phase one involves releasing tiny amounts of SO2 into the stratosphere to study how aerosols form, evolve, and disperse. This would be done in conjunction with instruments like aircraft, ground-based stations, and satellites to measure the effects accurately. Comparing these observations to model predictions would offer early insights into where current projections are robust and where they need refinement.
Phase two experiments could involve larger amounts of SO2 being released to study how aerosols mix and distribute. These tests would aim to identify key uncertainties in our understanding of SAI, as well as detect any unauthorized deployments. The observational capabilities required for these tests would also be critical in monitoring the effects of SAI on climate patterns.
A hypothetical phase three trial could involve small, deliberate cooling over five years under constant observation and strict oversight. If successful, this approach could provide a framework for policymakers to make informed decisions about SAI use. However, building confidence in this technology requires real-world evidence, transparently generated before any crisis forces action.
Several initiatives are underway to develop the tools, rules, and oversight mechanisms necessary for responsible research on SAI. The UK's Advanced Research and Invention Agency (Aria) program is a notable example. Researchers, scientists, and organizations like Reflective are working together to accelerate the pace of sunlight reflection studies and ensure transparency and accountability in the field.
Ultimately, conducting outdoor research on SAI is not a slippery slope; it's a necessary step towards informed decision-making about this potentially game-changing technology. By investing in open science and careful experimentation, we can reduce both scientific uncertainties and political risks, while ensuring that any future decisions are based on facts rather than fear or wishful thinking.