Black Friday spending raises eyebrows over US economy

US Consumers Show Resilience on Black Friday, But Underlying Data Suggests Economic Woes Remain

Data for the Thanksgiving weekend revealed consumers spent at healthy levels, with $6.4 billion in online sales on Thanksgiving Day and a record-breaking $11.8 billion on Black Friday. However, a closer look at spending patterns suggests that the economic boon the administration is expecting may be overstated.

According to Salesforce data cited by Forbes, order volume fell by 1% year over year, while average selling prices rose 7%. This indicates that much of the growth was driven by inflation rather than an increase in shopping enthusiasm. Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail, noted that a lot of this year's increase was "due to higher prices with soft underlying volume growth."

The White House has already pointed to Black Friday sales figures as evidence that American consumers are in good health. However, others see signs that weak consumer confidence and financial headwinds are taking their toll despite an overall jump in spending.

Pre-Black Friday forecasts were mixed, with some projecting record-high spending and others anticipating a decline due to "cost pressures and financial constraints." Adobe forecast $761.8 million in buy-now, pay-later (BNPL) spending on Black Friday, adding that $20.2 billion would be spent through BNPL in November and December, up 11% year over year.

Analysts point to the increasing usage of artificial intelligence and BNPL options as driving factors behind this year's spending. However, they also note that consumers are becoming more selective with their spending, sticking to budgets and only buying what is essential.

"This is a classic 'higher prices, lower volume' story," said author and investor Joel Greenblatt. "People are still spending, but inflation is cutting into how much they actually buy."

Despite higher online sales, retail analytics provider RetailNext charted a 5.3% year-over-year decline for in-store traffic on Friday and Saturday. Shoppers showed they're done with the impulse-driven, one-day frenzy, opting instead to shop with discipline and value.

The upcoming holiday season will provide more insight into consumers' spending patterns, but for now, it appears that economic headwinds are taking their toll. With inflation expected to be a larger contributor to sales growth than actual volume, retailers must adapt to changing consumer behavior and navigate the complexities of a post-pandemic economy.

so its like the good news on Black Friday is kinda like the bad news, you know? people r still spending but its more bcos prices r high n not bcos they really wanna splurge . its like when u gotta spend more money to get the same thing, it doesnt feel like ur saving or anything

anywayz, rn online sales are up but in-store traffic is down, which is kinda weird considering everyone's still shopping . and thats not even considerin how many ppl r strugglin financially or stuff .

retailers need to adjust bcos its clear consumers r gettin more selective with their spending . BNPL options might be helpin but also makin people overspend 'cause they can, n that's not good

we'll have to see how the rest of the holiday season goes but rn, i think its safe 2 say theres more 2 this story than meets the eye

omg i just got back from my family gathering on turkey day and omg the prices were CRAZY lol i mean like seriously how much can one person spend in like 2 days?? i think its cool that people are still shopping but at the same time im worried about the state of our economy rn my friend's sister just lost her job and now she has to deal with some serious financial stress... maybe the admin is playing with numbers or something? anyway, it makes sense that consumers would be more selective with their spending... i mean who can afford all those fancy gadgets and whatnot?

im not surprised by these numbers tbh they always say ppl r gonna spend more but then it's all about how much they actually get for their cash so yeah $6.4 billion on thanksgiving day is kinda cool, but that 1% order volume drop is a major red flag and i think the whole "people r still spending" thing is just a cop out we know prices r high rn, it's time for retailers to start thinking about how they can actually make ppl want to spend more without breaking the bank

I think people are being too harsh on consumers this Black Friday. I mean, yeah, order volumes were down by 1% but that's still $6.4 billion in online sales! And $11.8 billion on Black Friday is crazy! I guess it just means people are getting smart about their shopping and only buying what they need. Like, who needs to impulse buy stuff when you've got a budget? Plus, inflation is a big factor here, so that's not necessarily a bad thing. It's like, consumers are still spending but the money isn't going as far as it used to. I'm just saying, let's not jump to conclusions about consumer confidence just yet.

I'm kinda surprised by these Black Friday numbers . On one hand, it's great that people are still spending, but on the other hand, it feels like they're just keeping up with prices rather than actually enjoying themselves . I mean, 1% less order volume is no joke, and if inflation is basically driving all the growth, that's not exactly a cause for celebration . And don't even get me started on BNPL options - are we really selling people more debt? It just seems like retailers are trying to make up for lost ground by getting customers to spend now instead of later . I'm all for shoppers being smart and sticking to their budgets, but it feels like the retail industry is losing sight of what's truly important here .

So they're saying Black Friday was like, pretty good this year, but only if you count how much money people spent... as opposed to how many things they actually bought . Like, inflation is doing its thing, and people are still buying stuff, but it's not like they're getting a discount or something - they're just shelling out more cash for the same old items .

And don't even get me started on this whole "higher prices, lower volume" thing... sounds like a classic case of "we're still in business, so we must be doing something right"... meanwhile, people are just being super chill and only buying what they need . It's like the ultimate adulting move - saying no to impulse buys and yeah, I'll take that budget-friendly option over a fancy new gadget any day .

Anyway, it's all good... or is it? Maybe the White House just wants us to think people are doing well so they can say "see, we told you!"

I think the White House is being a bit too optimistic here . I mean, sure, $11.8 billion in Black Friday sales sounds impressive, but let's not forget that's largely due to people feeling pressured into buying stuff because prices are higher . It's not necessarily about them wanting to splurge or having more disposable income. They're just trying to keep up with inflation . And don't even get me started on the fact that in-store traffic is down 5.3% year-over-year... people are clearly getting smarter about their spending habits . The whole "higher prices, lower volume" thing is a classic sign of economic woes . Retailers need to stop just trying to keep up with inflation and start focusing on what's really important: giving consumers value for their money .

I think we need to take a step back here . $6.4 billion on Thanksgiving Day is crazy, but is it really a good sign? I mean, 1% less order volume than last year? That's not exactly what I'd call a healthy growth rate . And with average selling prices rising 7%, that's just inflation talking, not some magical increase in shopping enthusiasm . Consumers are being selective, sticking to their budgets and only buying what they need – that's a sign of economic headwinds, if you ask me . We can't keep ignoring the fact that cost pressures and financial constraints are real . Retailers need to adapt, not just rely on BNPL options to drive sales. The data says one thing: consumers are being cautious, not carefree. That's a worrying trend for many businesses .

you know what's wild I was at this outdoor cafe yesterday with a friend we were sipping on some coffee and just started talking about our favorite travel destinations have you ever been to Japan I mean, I've always wanted to visit Tokyo and try all the weird food they have lol anyway back to Black Friday sales yeah it's all cool that people are still spending but at the same time inflation is like a big fat elephant in the room

I'm kinda surprised at how much people still spent on Black Friday . I mean, yeah, $6.4 billion in online sales is still a big number, but when you break it down, order volume only went up by 1%... that's not exactly booming growth if you ask me . And with inflation being such a big factor this year, I'm guessing people are just trying to keep up with prices rather than actually buying more stuff . It's like they're playing catch-up, you know? Retailers need to be careful not to just rely on price hikes and instead focus on what really matters - customer behavior and value .

I don't buy into this whole "economic boom" thing. The numbers don't add up . 1% year-over-year decrease in order volume is still a decline, no matter how much inflation is driving sales . And let's not forget that 5.3% drop in in-store traffic on Black Friday and Saturday ? That tells me people are shopping less, just finding ways to make their money go further .

What really caught my eye was the mention of BNPL spending . I'm all for innovation, but can we get some actual data behind these claims? What's driving this growth, and how is it affecting consumers in reality?

I'm not convinced by those Black Friday numbers . It seems like people are just buying stuff because prices are high, not necessarily because they want it . And have you seen the in-store traffic on Black Friday? 5.3% decline is no joke . I think retailers need to rethink their strategies and focus on value rather than just trying to push sales . The fact that consumers are being more selective with their spending and sticking to budgets is a good thing, but it also means they're not exactly eager to splurge . We need to see some real growth in actual spending power, not just inflation-driven growth .

I'm kinda underwhelmed by these Black Friday numbers . On the one hand, $11.8 billion in online sales is still pretty cool, but on the other hand, order volume only went up 1%? That's not exactly what I'd call a shopping frenzy . And don't even get me started on the inflation factor - yeah, people are still spending, but they're just doing it at a lower cost point . Retailers need to stop chasing the hype and focus on giving customers value for their money . The fact that in-store traffic is down 5.3% is also a major red flag . It's clear consumers are getting more selective about how they shop, so retailers gotta step up their game

I'm kinda surprised by these Black Friday numbers... sure, $11.8 billion in online sales is crazy, but when you look at the data, it's all about inflation, not people actually wanting to spend more . 1% less orders and average prices rising 7%? That's not exactly what I'd call consumer enthusiasm . And have you seen those BNPL numbers? $761.8 million on Black Friday alone is wild, but what really gets me is that consumers are being super selective with their spending . They're sticking to budgets and only buying the essentials. It's all about discipline now . I mean, I'm not saying retailers should be pessimistic or anything, but they do need to adapt to changing consumer behavior and navigate this post-pandemic economy... it's not as rosy as everyone makes it out to be .

I'm not sure about this - on the surface it does seem like US consumers are still holding up pretty well, especially with those record-breaking Black Friday numbers . But if you dig deeper, things aren't looking quite so rosy. I mean, a 1% drop in order volume and an increase in average selling prices that's more inflation-driven than actual enthusiasm for shopping? That doesn't necessarily sound like the kind of economic boom we'd expect from consumers who are feeling good about their finances .

And don't even get me started on the BNPL (buy-now, pay-later) growth - it's definitely a sign that consumers are getting more selective with their spending and trying to stick to their budgets . I mean, sure, it's great for retailers who can offer these services, but is it really a sign of strength in consumer confidence? Or is it just a sign that people are feeling the pinch of rising costs and are looking for ways to stay within budget?

The fact that RetailNext saw a 5.3% year-over-year decline in in-store traffic on Black Friday and Saturday also suggests that consumers are getting more disciplined about their shopping habits . And let's be real, who wants to spend the day rushing around stores trying to snag some last-minute deals when they can stay home, make a cup of coffee, and shop online from the comfort of their own homes? It sounds like retailers need to adapt to changing consumer behavior and find ways to make shopping more convenient and value-driven for people.

OMG u guys i think its not all sunshine & rainbows lol the data is showing us that consumers are still shopping but its not because they're super excited about it, its more like they're trying to keep up with inflation . and dont even get me started on the BNPL options, its like retailers r just trying 2 make us spend more money i mean i guess its better than a decline in sales, but still...its all about adapting 2 the new normal