"Labour and the Tories are banking on a return to the 'old normal' - but that's not what voters want. The two parties are assuming a historic claim to primacy within their respective coalitions, but this sense of entitlement doesn't reflect the balance of real-world opinion.
The plan is that economic growth and governing competence will boost general wellbeing in the coming years, while the alternative is Nigel Farage. However, this calculation assumes continuity of a trend for the ruling parties to regain support when a general election comes around.
Labour hopes that Labour's recovery rests on this distinction, but it seems unlikely. The party is still struggling to convince voters that it has a theory of what had gone wrong in the meantime and a plan to fix it. Keir Starmer's failure to communicate these things is one point on which opinion polls are unambiguous.
The Conservatives, on the other hand, are banking on an optimistic scenario where the economy falters, and they surge with a campaign arguing that Labour has overtaxed Britain and misspent the proceeds. This assumes that politics will follow precedent and that beneath the surface, volatility flows strong and familiar currents.
However, this is not what voters want. The old normal - a duopoly of Labour and the Tories - is exactly what's under threat. Recent local council races suggest an England dominated by Reform and the Liberal Democrats, rather than the traditional two-party system.
The future is never fixed, but it seems that the scale of change might be seismic. Acceptance that current unpopularity is not just a consequence of dissatisfaction with choices made by the present government but also a reflection of doubt that politics in the familiar configuration can deliver anything other than disappointment is required.
Rafael Behr argues that Labour and Tory leaders have a lot invested in old patterns reasserting themselves, making it hard to accept the possibility of permanent change. The historic Labour-Tory rivalry is also a kind of mutual dependency, where they define themselves as ideological antitheses and find it hard to admit shared ownership with voters.
Ultimately, normal political patterns indicate that either Labour or Badenoch could turn their parties' fortunes around, but recent politics suggests otherwise. Voters don't want the old normal back - they want change."
The plan is that economic growth and governing competence will boost general wellbeing in the coming years, while the alternative is Nigel Farage. However, this calculation assumes continuity of a trend for the ruling parties to regain support when a general election comes around.
Labour hopes that Labour's recovery rests on this distinction, but it seems unlikely. The party is still struggling to convince voters that it has a theory of what had gone wrong in the meantime and a plan to fix it. Keir Starmer's failure to communicate these things is one point on which opinion polls are unambiguous.
The Conservatives, on the other hand, are banking on an optimistic scenario where the economy falters, and they surge with a campaign arguing that Labour has overtaxed Britain and misspent the proceeds. This assumes that politics will follow precedent and that beneath the surface, volatility flows strong and familiar currents.
However, this is not what voters want. The old normal - a duopoly of Labour and the Tories - is exactly what's under threat. Recent local council races suggest an England dominated by Reform and the Liberal Democrats, rather than the traditional two-party system.
The future is never fixed, but it seems that the scale of change might be seismic. Acceptance that current unpopularity is not just a consequence of dissatisfaction with choices made by the present government but also a reflection of doubt that politics in the familiar configuration can deliver anything other than disappointment is required.
Rafael Behr argues that Labour and Tory leaders have a lot invested in old patterns reasserting themselves, making it hard to accept the possibility of permanent change. The historic Labour-Tory rivalry is also a kind of mutual dependency, where they define themselves as ideological antitheses and find it hard to admit shared ownership with voters.
Ultimately, normal political patterns indicate that either Labour or Badenoch could turn their parties' fortunes around, but recent politics suggests otherwise. Voters don't want the old normal back - they want change."
. Voters r gettin fed up wiv the status quo & are lookin 4 somethin new. Thay need a party that can bring somethin diffrent to the table, not just regurgitate old slogans. Its not about Farage bein a polarizing figure, its about labour and tories havin failed 2 deliver on their promises 
. We need more innovation & less politics as usual 
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... no wait, I mean it's definitely going to keep on truckin' as usual 
They've just got some new faces trying to shake things up. The local council thingy doesn't necessarily mean a seismic shift in the making 
... I mean it definitely does 
. Politicians are just gonna keep on doing what they do best: arguing and pointing fingers 
. Labour's got a plan, but is it any good? Who knows? Maybe Starmer's got some tricks up his sleeve 
. The Conservatives might try to make the economy bad again... because that always works out so well 
. But hey, voters want change, right? Uh, I think they just wanna stick with what they know and love 
.
! Like, it's been a while since we've seen some real change happen, and I think Labour and Tories are out of touch if they think voters just wanna go back to the way things were 
. I mean, remember Brexit? That was like, the ultimate game-changer 
. And now, with the Reform party on the rise, it's clear that people are demanding something more 
. Keir Starmer needs to step up his communication game, stat! 
And those Tories thinking they can just ride the economy wave back to power? Please 
. I think this is gonna be a wild ride, and I'm all in for some seismic change 
!
. They're assuming voters just wanna go back to how it's always been, but we all know that ain't true 
. I mean, have you seen the way reformers are doing in local council races? England is moving on from the old normal 
. Labour and conservatives need to think outside the box (or in this case, the two party system 
. I'm loving the idea of Reform and the Lib Dems doing well in local council races though - maybe it's time for some fresh faces to shake things up 
They keep talking about 'the old normal', but honestly who wants that? 
The fact that Reform & Liberal Democrats are doing well in local council races is a good sign that ppl want change 
. i think we need a shift in perspective where people can see that there's more to politics than just choosing between two familiar options 
. and yeah, labours struggle to explain their plan is real, but so does the cons' optimism 
. the thing is, the voters aren't having it - they want change, not more of the same old stuff 
Farage might actually bring some much-needed shakeups to politics... but can anyone handle the chaos that comes with it? 
... Labour and Tories are banking on the 'old normal' coming back but honestly, that just doesn't seem to be what voters want anymore