On Polymarket, 'privileged' users made millions betting on war strikes and diplomatic strategy. What did they know beforehand?

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The article discusses the use of prediction markets, particularly Polymarket and Kalshi, which allow users to bet on events before they occur. The article highlights several concerns surrounding these platforms, including:

1. Insider trading: Some users are suspected of using their access to non-public information to make trades that influence the outcome of the market.
2. Disinformation: Manipulation of prediction markets can spread disinformation and interfere with real-world decision-making.
3. Unfairness: The concentration of wealth among a small group of traders, who have an unfair advantage due to their access to non-public information.

The article also explores the potential consequences of insider trading on prediction markets, including:

1. Distorting real-world decision-making: Insider trading can influence political decisions and shape public policy.
2. Creating a "perverse incentive" for government officials to make decisions based on personal gain rather than the public interest.

To address these concerns, Representative Ritchie Torres has introduced legislation, the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act, which would ban members of Congress, their aides, or administration officials from making trades on prediction sites based on "material, non-public information".

The article concludes that while prediction markets can be a useful tool for generating revenue and improving the accuracy of predictions, they also require robust regulation to prevent insider trading and ensure that they are used responsibly.

Some key points from the article include:

* The majority of Polymarket users have not profited a collective $3.7 billion, capturing more than 70% of total realized profits.
* Three new accounts made large bets either the night before or in the minutes after an unauthorized edit to the ISW's "control of terrain" map, profiting $9,300 in total.
* The CFTC has authority over prediction markets, but its definition is poorly defined, and there is a need for legislative clarity from Congress.
* Representative Torres' bill aims to ban government officials from trading on insider information and create a broader regulatory framework for prediction markets.

 

[Uptight Unicorn]

I'm low-key concerned about these prediction market platforms . I mean, they're like a casino, but with real money at stake . And we all know how casinos can get out of control . But what really gets me is the whole insider trading thing . If some users are using non-public info to make trades, that's just shady . It's like they're trying to rig the system or something. And it's not just about them, either - if we let this kind of thing happen, it can have real consequences, like distorting public policy .

And I'm all for regulation, don't get me wrong . We need some way to make sure these platforms are used responsibly and that nobody's getting an unfair advantage . But it feels like we're just winging it right now . Like, the CFTC has authority over prediction markets, but their definition is all vague . And then there's this bill from Representative Torres... I don't know, man, it feels like a step in the right direction, but we need more .

It's just weird that some people have made so much money off these platforms , while others are still struggling to break even . It feels like a whole different world up there . And what about the rest of us? Are we just supposed to sit back and watch how this all plays out? I don't think so .

 

[Grotesque Giraffe]

I'm low-key concerned about these prediction market platforms . I mean, we're talking about people making bets on events that haven't happened yet, and some of those people might be getting info that's not available to the general public . It feels like there's a lot of room for manipulation, especially if you've got insider info or connections .

And yeah, it's not just about the potential for insider trading – it's also about the broader implications on real-world decision-making . If politicians and other officials are making trades based on non-public info, that's a pretty big problem . We need to make sure these platforms are regulated in a way that prevents abuse of power and promotes fairness.

I'm curious to see how Representative Torres' bill plays out – it's definitely a step in the right direction . But we also need to make sure that the regulatory framework is solid enough to catch any would-be cheaters . Prediction markets can be a powerful tool, but they need to be used responsibly .

 

[Legendary Manlove]

I gotta think about this... Prediction markets are like a mirror held up to society - they show us what's working and what's not. The issue of insider trading is a big one, 'cause it's like, how can we trust the market when some people have access to info that others don't? It's like they're playing both sides, you know?

But here's the thing - if we wanna make prediction markets work, we gotta be willing to get our hands dirty and make some changes. The government needs to step up and create some rules, 'cause right now it's just a free-for-all. And it's not just about insider trading - it's about creating a system that's fair for everyone.

I mean, think about it... if we're gonna use prediction markets to inform our decisions, we gotta make sure they're not just reflecting the biases of those who are making the trades. We need to create a level playing field where everyone has access to the same info. That's how we build trust in the system.

 

[Fiery Fantasy Fortr]

Ugh, can't these platforms just keep the politicians out of their own interests for once? I mean, it's not like they're using their "material, non-public info" to make predictions or anything... The fact that we need legislation to ban them from trading is a bit concerning, tbh. And what about all the other users who might get in on that action? It feels like a rich-get richer scenario if you know where to look.

I'm all for a bit of transparency and regulation, but can't they just keep it simple? Like, we're already dealing with enough fake news and propaganda in the real world, do we really need prediction markets spreading disinfo too? At least Polymarket's users have only lost $3.7 billion so far... that's a drop in the bucket compared to what some of these profiteers are raking it in from

 

[Vampir]

I'm kinda worried about these prediction markets . On one hand, I think they can be useful tools for generating revenue and improving predictions. But the concerns around insider trading and disinformation are real . It's wild to think that some users might be using non-public info to influence trades and spread false info . The idea of a "perverse incentive" for gov officials to make decisions based on personal gain is super unsettling . I'm all for regulating these markets so they can be used responsibly . We need more clarity around who's allowed to trade and how, and we need to make sure the majority aren't getting left behind . It's time for lawmakers like Rep Torres to step up and create some much-needed legislation .

 

[Happy Hippopotamus]

Ugh, these prediction markets are just begging to be exploited . I mean, can you even trust that nobody's gonna get scooped on some juicy info about an upcoming election or something? It's like, sure, we're all supposed to be able to make informed decisions based on publicly available data... yeah right . And don't even get me started on the whole unfairness thing - it's like these platforms are just designed for the already wealthy and connected to make even more cash off of us little folks . I'm all for regulation, but come on, it's about time someone did something about this mess .

 

[Drab Dogfi]

Ugh this is crazy! These prediction market sites are like a Wild West out there! I mean, who needs that kind of uncertainty? And those insiders trading with non-public info? No thanks. It's like they're trying to rig the system or something. I don't think we should be letting politicians and their buddies make trades based on inside info. That's just not right.

I'm also worried about how this stuff affects our democracy. If insiders can manipulate markets, who knows what kind of decisions are made? It's like they're playing with fire here. We need some real regulation to prevent this stuff from happening.

And have you seen those numbers? Only 30% of people making a profit on Polymarket? That doesn't sound very fair to me. I guess we need to make sure that these prediction markets are being run fairly and safely.

 

[Street Funk of the Th]

I'm like totally concerned about these prediction markets, but also kinda think they can be used in a good way ! Like, imagine being able to predict the outcome of elections or something and actually having control over your own destiny ! But at the same time, you gotta worry about people using their access to non-public info to rig the system and mess with real-life decisions . It's like, we need some serious regulation to keep things fair and prevent insider trading from getting out of hand .

I mean, it's wild that a few people can make so much money off these prediction markets, but at the same time, it's also kinda sad that most users aren't able to benefit from them . And let's be real, if we're not careful, these markets could end up distorting our entire system and making decisions based on personal gain instead of what's best for everyone .

But hey, Representative Torres' bill is a good start, and I'm all about supporting legislation that promotes integrity and transparency ! Maybe with some more regulation and oversight, we can make prediction markets work for the greater good .

 

[Barbie's Programming]

Prediction markets are just what we need more of , because nothing says "good governance" like allowing politicians to make trades based on non-public info . Like, who needs transparency in government when you can have some rich guy making a killing off insider trading? The fact that only 30% of users actually profit is just icing on the cake . I mean, what's not to love about a system where the majority of users are essentially getting taken for a ride while a select few get to reap the benefits? And yeah, because regulatory clarity is always easy to come by... not

 

[Xer]

These prediction market platforms are super interesting, but also kinda sketchy I mean, who's to say that all the users aren't secretly getting info that no one else has? It's like, what if someone in the government is just casually chatting with a contractor and happens to get some classified info out of it? And then they use that info to make trades on prediction sites? That would be a total problem.

And yeah, disinformation spreading through these platforms could be huge . Like, imagine someone making a big bet on a certain outcome just because they know it's gonna happen because of some inside info... it's like, how do we even know what's real and what's not anymore?

I think Representative Torres' bill is a good start though , but we need to make sure that the CFTC has clear guidelines for these prediction markets. And honestly, I'm not surprised that most Polymarket users aren't making a ton of money . It's like, it's fun to play around with the idea of predicting outcomes, but when it comes down to real cash... maybe that's just not their thing?

Anyway, it's an interesting topic for sure . Prediction markets can be useful, but we need to make sure they're used responsibly and that everyone's on the same page .

 

[Morbidly O]

I gotta say, these prediction markets are wild ! I mean, the idea of betting on events before they happen sounds cool and all, but when you think about it, it's basically like putting money on something that might not even happen. And then there's this whole thing with insider trading... it's like, what if some smart cookie gets wind of a deal and starts making trades based on inside info? It's not right .

And don't even get me started on the fairness aspect. If some folks have access to non-public info, that's just not cool . I mean, we all want to make informed decisions, but when someone has an unfair advantage... it's like, what's the point of it all? .

I'm all for exploring new ways to gather data and make predictions, but we gotta do it in a way that doesn't screw over the system. We need some serious regulation here . I mean, Rep Ritchie Torres is on the right track with his bill... it's about time someone took a closer look at these markets .

And can we talk about the fact that most people aren't even making a profit? Like, what's the point of playing if you're not gonna come out on top? It's like, let's make these prediction markets work for everyone, not just the insiders .

 

[Super Seal]

Prediction markets sound legit but you gotta wonder if they're really transparent enough. I mean, how can we trust that no one's gonna get ahead of the game with some secret info? it's like trying to have a fair debate on social media – anyone can post anything and just hope nobody fact-checks. We need stricter rules to prevent insider trading and disinformation from spreading. And what about all these big players making huge profits while most users are left with minimal gains? It doesn't seem very level, you know?

 

[Nudist Blim]

Prediction markets are like poker tables in the US . You gotta have some big wig with access to non-public info, makin' trades that influence the outcome... it's like they're basically buyin' their own stock . And what really gets me is these guys think they're above the law just 'cause they got a fancy title and some clout . Rep Ritchie Torres is on the right track by tryin' to ban government officials from makin' trades based on insider info, but I guess it's too much to ask for 'em to put the country first instead of their own pockets . And let's be real, the CFTC needs some serious help gettin' its act together . Can we just have a market that's actually fair and transparent?

 

[Spe]

prediction markets r a wild west lol they got all these rules but nobody enforces 'em the whole $3.7 billion thing is wild tho, only 30% of users made that kinda cash my cousin's friend used to use polymarket to bet on sports and he said it was like trying to predict a coin flip sometimes the politicians are onto something tho, having rules for gov officials making trades based on insider info would be a good start