Russia is already exploring ways to circumvent the latest US sanctions designed to cut off its lucrative oil exports to India, according to industry analysts. Since the Ukraine war began, India has become the world's second-largest buyer of Russian crude oil, benefiting from discounted prices due to Western sanctions.
The Trump administration has ramped up pressure on India, threatening 500% tariffs and withdrawing from several global initiatives over India's continued purchase of Russian oil. However, Indian officials have refused to yield, maintaining that their energy policies are a sovereign issue.
Despite the US sanctions, which initially led to a decline in India's imports of Russian oil, industry experts say that Russia is already reorganizing its supply chain to allow countries like India to bypass the restrictions. New players have emerged as shadow middlemen between Russian oil giants and refineries in countries such as India.
These new companies are dominating exports, and it is likely only a matter of two or three months until the full supply chain gets reorganized, with most barrels supplied by companies that are not Rosneft or Lukoil. The Indian government has not issued a direct mandate to state or private refineries on Russian oil but has encouraged them to act in their best interests.
The low price of Russian oil is too enticing for countries like India to ignore. After the US sanctions, the discounts on Russian crude have dropped significantly, making it $9 or $10 per barrel cheaper than oil from countries such as Saudi Arabia or Iraq.
Analysts say that imports by India's public sector will soon return to pre-sanctions levels, with some estimates suggesting savings of almost $4 billion over a year for companies willing to buy Russian oil. The global oil market has also reflected this expectation, with prices falling off as traders and analysts doubt the effectiveness of US sanctions enforcement.
Reliance, India's largest private oil company, is an exception, having publicly declared it would no longer import Russian crude into its Jamnagar refinery since November. However, analysts suggest that Reliance may be eyeing a new opportunity in Venezuela, with reports indicating that the conglomerate is among companies in talks with the US for authorization to resume purchases of Venezuelan oil.
The Trump administration has ramped up pressure on India, threatening 500% tariffs and withdrawing from several global initiatives over India's continued purchase of Russian oil. However, Indian officials have refused to yield, maintaining that their energy policies are a sovereign issue.
Despite the US sanctions, which initially led to a decline in India's imports of Russian oil, industry experts say that Russia is already reorganizing its supply chain to allow countries like India to bypass the restrictions. New players have emerged as shadow middlemen between Russian oil giants and refineries in countries such as India.
These new companies are dominating exports, and it is likely only a matter of two or three months until the full supply chain gets reorganized, with most barrels supplied by companies that are not Rosneft or Lukoil. The Indian government has not issued a direct mandate to state or private refineries on Russian oil but has encouraged them to act in their best interests.
The low price of Russian oil is too enticing for countries like India to ignore. After the US sanctions, the discounts on Russian crude have dropped significantly, making it $9 or $10 per barrel cheaper than oil from countries such as Saudi Arabia or Iraq.
Analysts say that imports by India's public sector will soon return to pre-sanctions levels, with some estimates suggesting savings of almost $4 billion over a year for companies willing to buy Russian oil. The global oil market has also reflected this expectation, with prices falling off as traders and analysts doubt the effectiveness of US sanctions enforcement.
Reliance, India's largest private oil company, is an exception, having publicly declared it would no longer import Russian crude into its Jamnagar refinery since November. However, analysts suggest that Reliance may be eyeing a new opportunity in Venezuela, with reports indicating that the conglomerate is among companies in talks with the US for authorization to resume purchases of Venezuelan oil.
. Like, I get why they want to save some cash on their energy costs, but come on, $4 billion savings per year? That's a lot of money 
. And now Russia is just reorganizing its supply chain like it’s nothing 
. It’s like they're trying to outsmart the US on every level 
. I don’t think anyone really knows what's going on with Reliance and Venezuela though, that one has me stumped 
. Anyway, gotta wonder what other players are getting in on this Russian oil action 
.
come on, 500% tariffs? that's like trying to squeeze water out of a rock 
, it's not gonna happen! India's got too much Russian oil love 
and it's gonna find a way around those sanctions. These new middlemen are like the ultimate ninjas 
, sneaking around and buying up all the discounted oil they can get their hands on. And let's be real, who needs Saudi Arabia or Iraq when you've got Russia just throwing away its excess oil 
? It's a win-win for India: cheap oil and no US tariffs 
.
they r finding ways 2 bypass those tariffs & get ther oil 2 India again! 
like they know Indians r too hooked on that cheap Russian oil 
plus global oil prices r down coz traders r like "meh US sanctions rnt workin" 
guess Reliance is the odd one out tho, they r not importin Russian oil no more 
but Venezuela here they come! 
... us sanctions are supposed to hit russia hard but they're basically getting creative around it 
... and let's be real, india is just gonna keep buying russian oil regardless of what us says 
... it's like, we can't even control our own energy market anymore 
... what's next?
just learned that Russia's been sneaky about circumventing those US sanctions on their oil exports to India 
. I mean, come on $500% tariffs ain't gonna deter them 
. It's all about supply and demand, right? 
New players are emerging as shadow middlemen between Russian oil giants and refineries in countries like India. This is gonna shake things up in the global oil market 
!
we should be focusing on sustainable energy solutions, not just lining our pockets with cheap oil 
. Mark my words, we'll be seeing more of this in the coming months 
.