Murder rates have been on the decline globally for decades. According to recent data from the World Bank, between 2000 and 2023, the international homicide rate fell by a quarter, translating to an equivalent reduction of about 1.5 million potential victims.
In fact, for much of human history, violence was actually more prevalent than it is today. In medieval England, towns like London, York, and Oxford had homicide rates ranging from 20 to 25 per 100,000 people. But with the development of civilization, things changed. As states grew stronger and law enforcement improved, the number of murders plummeted.
In many countries around the world, including Brazil, homicides have been falling in recent years. The main drivers behind this trend are better state capacity, targeted policing, economic conditions, and demographic changes.
One factor has played a crucial role in reducing violence: aging. Studies show that the single most robust predictor of violent offending is age, with homicide being predominantly committed by young men. As societies have aged, crime rates have decreased across many regions of the world.
In fact, for much of human history, violence was actually more prevalent than it is today. In medieval England, towns like London, York, and Oxford had homicide rates ranging from 20 to 25 per 100,000 people. But with the development of civilization, things changed. As states grew stronger and law enforcement improved, the number of murders plummeted.
In many countries around the world, including Brazil, homicides have been falling in recent years. The main drivers behind this trend are better state capacity, targeted policing, economic conditions, and demographic changes.
One factor has played a crucial role in reducing violence: aging. Studies show that the single most robust predictor of violent offending is age, with homicide being predominantly committed by young men. As societies have aged, crime rates have decreased across many regions of the world.
. Like, who wouldn't want to live in a safer world right? I mean, 1.5 million fewer potential victims is huge 
. And you're right, it's been like that for ages - medieval England was actually super violent 
, but now we've got stronger states and law enforcement, so less murders 
. Its also interesting how demographics play a part in this, like the fact that most murderers are young men, so as societies get older, crime rates drop 
.
. But still, I kinda want to know more about what's really going on here.
. But, we need to dig deeper than just some shiny new data point and consider the bigger picture 
.
. I'm all for 'em getting older' being a factor in reducing violence tho... sounds like common sense to me, if you ask me 
. Crime rates don't magically disappear, but sometimes we get lucky and the whole system just kinda... clicks into place 
. It's awesome to see those numbers trending downwards - let's keep pushing for a safer world! 
. I mean, can you imagine living in a time where 20-25 murders per 100k people was just a normal day? 
It's wild to think that some of the same factors that were driving violence back then – like economic conditions and demographic changes – are now contributing to the decline.
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