The threat of a US-Venezuela war is very real, but it feels like a fabrication. President Donald Trump recently ordered the closure of all airspace above and surrounding Venezuela, with no apparent military action to follow. The announcement was met with surprise from US officials who were unaware of any ongoing operations.
The justification for this buildup is often linked to the idea that Venezuela is a key player in the global narcotics trade. However, experts argue that the country is not a major producer of illicit drugs and its role as a transshipment point does not justify military intervention.
Trump administration officials claim that US strikes have saved thousands of American lives, but these numbers are likely exaggerated. While it's true that one kilogram of fentanyl has the potential to kill 500,000 people, most fentanyl in the US is smuggled overland from Mexico and is unlikely to be carried on speedboats from South America.
The administration's decision to designate Venezuela as a foreign terrorist organization is also a concern. The country's "Cartel de los Soles" was not an actual cartel, but rather a term used by Venezuelans to describe senior military officials involved in criminal activities. This designation appears to be part of an effort to build a political case for military action, although it provides no legal authority.
The situation is reminiscent of the run-up to the 2003 Iraq war, where evidence for Saddam Hussein's regime possessing weapons of mass destruction was widely disputed. While there has been less scrutiny of the Trump administration's narrative on Venezuela, the lack of concrete evidence and contradictory premises surrounding this buildup raises concerns about the legitimacy of the US position.
The likelihood of a protracted invasion like the one in Iraq is low due to the deployment of US forces in the region being geared towards counterterrorism rather than large-scale ground operations. The situation feels more like an exercise in demonstration force, where the US will launch some strikes and then move on to other issues.
Despite the real-world consequences of a war with Venezuela, including the lives of civilians and American service members at risk, there is a sense of unreality surrounding this buildup.
The justification for this buildup is often linked to the idea that Venezuela is a key player in the global narcotics trade. However, experts argue that the country is not a major producer of illicit drugs and its role as a transshipment point does not justify military intervention.
Trump administration officials claim that US strikes have saved thousands of American lives, but these numbers are likely exaggerated. While it's true that one kilogram of fentanyl has the potential to kill 500,000 people, most fentanyl in the US is smuggled overland from Mexico and is unlikely to be carried on speedboats from South America.
The administration's decision to designate Venezuela as a foreign terrorist organization is also a concern. The country's "Cartel de los Soles" was not an actual cartel, but rather a term used by Venezuelans to describe senior military officials involved in criminal activities. This designation appears to be part of an effort to build a political case for military action, although it provides no legal authority.
The situation is reminiscent of the run-up to the 2003 Iraq war, where evidence for Saddam Hussein's regime possessing weapons of mass destruction was widely disputed. While there has been less scrutiny of the Trump administration's narrative on Venezuela, the lack of concrete evidence and contradictory premises surrounding this buildup raises concerns about the legitimacy of the US position.
The likelihood of a protracted invasion like the one in Iraq is low due to the deployment of US forces in the region being geared towards counterterrorism rather than large-scale ground operations. The situation feels more like an exercise in demonstration force, where the US will launch some strikes and then move on to other issues.
Despite the real-world consequences of a war with Venezuela, including the lives of civilians and American service members at risk, there is a sense of unreality surrounding this buildup.