Stacey Abrams' Coalition: Who Will Inherit It in Georgia's 2026 Governorial Race?
Georgia Democratic primary hopefuls are bracing for a battle that could determine who wins the coveted Stacey Abrams coalition. Abrams, the state's former House Minority Leader and nominee for governor in 2018 and 2022, has not yet endorsed any candidate, but insiders claim that one contender is best positioned to secure her backing.
The stakes are high in Georgia, which has become a crucial battleground state in the US political landscape. With Republicans controlling Washington, governors' races have taken on increased importance as Democrats seek to counter President Donald Trump's influence. Abrams' organizing prowess played a significant role in helping Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock win their Senate seats in 2020, and she remains an active force in state politics.
Abrams announced her decision not to run for governor again this month, triggering a new round of competition within the Democratic primary. However, rather than endorsing a candidate right away, Abrams may choose to maintain her strategic distance. Former members of her staff argue that Jason Esteves, a former state senator and underdog candidate polling at 3 percent, has a strong chance of winning over Abrams' influential coalition.
Those working for Abrams claim that Esteves shares a personal connection with the former leader, having actively supported her campaign in the past. Additionally, Esteves is seen as the only candidate who can recreate and expand Abrams' multigenerational, multicultural coalition that helped deliver crucial victories in 2020.
Abrams may not endorse anyone just yet, but her absence from the primary will undoubtedly be felt by her former staff members. According to a senior aide to her 2022 campaign, if Abrams were to call upon her supporters once again, they would "come running." However, experts warn that endorsements might be overrated in this primary, with candidates needing to demonstrate their grassroots mobilization abilities and capacity to inspire voters.
The contest is becoming increasingly crowded, with Keisha Lance Bottoms, a former Atlanta mayor and Biden administration senior adviser, leading the pack at 40 percent. Mike Thurmond, an ex-labor commissioner, trails behind at 11 percent, while Geoff Duncan, a former Republican who now criticizes Trump, lags further back at 5 percent.
As the primary draws near on May 19, voters are still undecided, with many respondents expressing uncertainty in early November polls. In this environment of flux and competition, Abrams' status as a key figure will remain pivotal, but ultimately, it's up to the candidate who best adopts her practices and mobilizes the coalition that made her name to secure victory come May.
While Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University, notes overlap in constituencies between Bottoms and Esteves, she believes Duncan holds an edge with his grassroots organization skills. "Identifying people is where Duncan excels," Gillespie said. However, the dynamics of this primary will depend on each candidate's ability to build their own coalition from scratch.
For now, Georgia Democrats are eagerly anticipating Abrams' next move, which could significantly impact the outcome of the 2026 governorial election.
Georgia Democratic primary hopefuls are bracing for a battle that could determine who wins the coveted Stacey Abrams coalition. Abrams, the state's former House Minority Leader and nominee for governor in 2018 and 2022, has not yet endorsed any candidate, but insiders claim that one contender is best positioned to secure her backing.
The stakes are high in Georgia, which has become a crucial battleground state in the US political landscape. With Republicans controlling Washington, governors' races have taken on increased importance as Democrats seek to counter President Donald Trump's influence. Abrams' organizing prowess played a significant role in helping Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock win their Senate seats in 2020, and she remains an active force in state politics.
Abrams announced her decision not to run for governor again this month, triggering a new round of competition within the Democratic primary. However, rather than endorsing a candidate right away, Abrams may choose to maintain her strategic distance. Former members of her staff argue that Jason Esteves, a former state senator and underdog candidate polling at 3 percent, has a strong chance of winning over Abrams' influential coalition.
Those working for Abrams claim that Esteves shares a personal connection with the former leader, having actively supported her campaign in the past. Additionally, Esteves is seen as the only candidate who can recreate and expand Abrams' multigenerational, multicultural coalition that helped deliver crucial victories in 2020.
Abrams may not endorse anyone just yet, but her absence from the primary will undoubtedly be felt by her former staff members. According to a senior aide to her 2022 campaign, if Abrams were to call upon her supporters once again, they would "come running." However, experts warn that endorsements might be overrated in this primary, with candidates needing to demonstrate their grassroots mobilization abilities and capacity to inspire voters.
The contest is becoming increasingly crowded, with Keisha Lance Bottoms, a former Atlanta mayor and Biden administration senior adviser, leading the pack at 40 percent. Mike Thurmond, an ex-labor commissioner, trails behind at 11 percent, while Geoff Duncan, a former Republican who now criticizes Trump, lags further back at 5 percent.
As the primary draws near on May 19, voters are still undecided, with many respondents expressing uncertainty in early November polls. In this environment of flux and competition, Abrams' status as a key figure will remain pivotal, but ultimately, it's up to the candidate who best adopts her practices and mobilizes the coalition that made her name to secure victory come May.
While Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University, notes overlap in constituencies between Bottoms and Esteves, she believes Duncan holds an edge with his grassroots organization skills. "Identifying people is where Duncan excels," Gillespie said. However, the dynamics of this primary will depend on each candidate's ability to build their own coalition from scratch.
For now, Georgia Democrats are eagerly anticipating Abrams' next move, which could significantly impact the outcome of the 2026 governorial election.
. Whoever wins this primary is gonna need to step up their game when it comes to mobilizing voters, especially in the multigenerational, multicultural communities that Abrams has built relationships with over the years. I'm watching Jason Esteves closely - his personal connection to Abrams could be a major factor in winning over her coalition 
. But at the same time, I think Keisha Lance Bottoms is a strong contender too - she's got some serious grassroots momentum going on 
. It's gonna be interesting to see how this plays out!
Abrams is known for building a strong team and getting people to show up at the polls, so it's hard to predict who'll come out on top. Meanwhile, Keisha Lance Bottoms is leading the pack right now, but her track record isn't exactly spotless...some people are saying she's more of a safe choice rather than a bold one 
. I MEAN, HE SEEMS LIKE A GREAT GUY WHO TRULY UNDERSTANDS WHAT SHE'S ALL ABOUT, AND WITH THAT PERSONAL CONNECTION AND ALL THAT STUFF, I THINK HE'S GOT A SOLID CHANCE AT WINNING OVER THAT COALITION 
. BUT AT THE SAME TIME, IT'S ALSO REALLY INTERESTING TO SEE KEISHA BOTTOMS OUT THERE, TOO - SHE SEEMS LIKE A STRONG CANDIDATE WHO CAN REALLY BRING HER OWN THING TO THE TABLE 
. EITHER WAY, I'M JUST EXCITED TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THAT PRIMARY AND WHO COMES OUT ON TOP 
.
. Whatever candidate comes out on top, we can only hope they'll use this momentum to make positive change in the state 
he's like the dark horse in this primary and I think his connection with Stacey Abrams is gonna make all the difference 
it's not just about who she endorses, but whether they can replicate her coalition magic 
I've been watching Keisha Lance Bottoms from afar and while she's got a strong campaign, I'm not convinced she can mobilize the same level of grassroots energy as Esteves 
He's got that personal connection with Abrams, but can he really carry on her legacy? 
It's like, we're all just watching from the sidelines, waiting for someone to make a move... and then there's this other guy, Keisha Lance Bottoms, who's got 40 percent of the vote 
! So Stacey Abrams is out of the running for gov in GA, but her org skills are still super valuable 
. Jason Esteves has a personal connection with her staff and some think he's got the best shot at winning over that coalition 
, but Mike Thurmond is way back at 11%. Geoff Duncan's grassroots org skills are strong, but let's not forget Andra Gillespie's analysis says there's overlap between Bottoms and Esteves' constituencies 
.
. If Jason Esteves can replicate this magic, he's got a real shot at taking down the competition 
!
. It's like, if Esteves can tap into that same vibe, he might just have a shot 
at 40%... the question is, how much do voters actually care about Abrams' coalition?